Amazon just announced, on the first full day of SC10 (SuperComputing 2010), the availability of Amazon EC2 (cloud) machine instances with dual Nvidia Fermi GPUs. According to Amazon's specification of instance types, this "Cluster GPU Quadruple Extra Large" instance contains:
- 22 GB of memory
- 33.5 EC2 Compute Units (2 x Intel Xeon X5570, quad-core "Nehalem" architecture)
- 2 x NVIDIA Tesla "Fermi" M2050 GPUs
- 1690 GB of instance storage
- 64-bit platform
- I/O Performance: Very High (10 Gigabit Ethernet)
So it looks like the future virtualization features of CUDA really are for purposes of using GPUs in the cloud, as I mentioned in my prior post.
One of these XXXXL instances costs $2.10 per hour for Linux; Windows users need not apply. Or, if you reserve an instance for a year – for $5630 – you then pay just $0.74 per hour during that year. (Prices quoted from Amazon's price list as of 11/15/2010; no doubt it will decrease over time.)
This became such hot news that GPU was a trending topic on Twitter for a while.
For those of you who don't watch such things, many of the Top500 HPC sites – the 500 supercomputers worldwide that are the fastest at the Linpack benchmark – have nodes featuring Nvidia Fermi GPUs. This year that list notoriously includes, in the top slot, the system causing the heaviest breathing at present: The Tianhe-1A at the National Supercomputer Center in Tianjin, in China.
I wonder how well this will do in the market. Cloud elasticity – the ability to add or remove nodes on demand – is usually a big cloud selling point for commercial use (expand for holiday rush, drop nodes after). How much it will really be used in HPC applications isn't clear to me, since those are usually batch mode, not continuously operating, growing and shrinking, like commercial web services. So it has to live on price alone. The price above doesn't feel all that inexpensive to me, but I'm not calibrated well in HPC costs these days, and don't know how much it compares with, for example, the cost of running the same calculation on Teragrid. Ad hoc, extemporaneous use of HPC is another possible use, but, while I'm sure it exists, I'm not sure how much exists.
Then again, how about services running games, including the rendering? I wonder if, for example, the communications secret sauce used by OnLive to stream rendered game video fast enough for first-person shooters can operate out of Amazon instances. Even if it doesn't, games that can tolerate a tad more latency may work. Possibly games targeting small screens, requiring less rendering effort, are another possibility. That could crater startup costs for companies offering games over the web.
Time will tell. For accelerators, we certainly are living in interesting times.
As mentioned earlier in OnLive Works! First Use Impressions, I've tried OnLive, and it works quite well, with no noticeable lag and fine video quality. As I've discussed, this could affect GPU volumes, a lot, if it becomes a market force, since you can play high-end games with a low-end PC. However, additional testing has confirmed that users will run into bandwidth and data usage issues, and the cost is not what I'd like for continued use.
To repeat some background, for completeness: OnLive is a service that runs games on their servers up in the cloud, streaming the video to your PC or Mac. It lets you run the highest-end games on very inexpensive systems, avoiding the cost of a rip-roaring gamer system. I've noted previously that this could hurt the mass market for GPUs, since OnLive doesn't need much graphics on the client. But there were serious questions (see my post Twilight of the GPU?) as to whether they could overcome bandwidth and lag issues: Can OnLive respond to your inputs fast enough for games to be playable? And could its bandwidth requirements be met with a normal household ISP?
As I said earlier, and can re-confirm: Video, check. I found no problems there; no artifacts, including in displayed text. Lag, hence gameplay, is perfectly adequate, at least for my level of skill. Those with sub-millisecond reflexes might feel otherwise; I can't tell. There's confirmation of the low lag from Eurogamer, which measured it at "150ms - similar to playing … locally".
Bandwidth
Bandwidth, on the other hand, does not present a pretty picture.
When I was playing or watching action, OnLive continuously ran at about 5.8% - 6.4% utilization of a 100 Mb/sec LAN card. (OnLive won't run on WiFi, only on a wired connection.) This rate is very consistent. Displayed image resolution didn't cause it to vary outside that range, whether it was full-screen on my 1600 x 900 laptop display, full-screen on my 1920 x 1080 monitor, or windowed to about half the laptop screen area (which was the window size OnLive picked without input from me). When looking at static text displays, like OnLive control panels, it dropped down to a much smaller amount, in the 0.01% range; but that's not what you want to spend time doing with a system like this.
I observed these values playing (Borderlands) and watching game trailers for a collection of "coming soon" games like Deus Ex, Drive, Darksiders, Two Worlds, Driver, etc. If you stand still in a non-action situation, it does go down to about 3% (of 100 Mb/sec) for me, but with action games that isn't the point.
6.4% of 100 Mb/sec is about 2.9 GB (bytes) per hour. That hurts.
My ISP, Comcast, considers over 250 GB/month "excessive usage" and grounds for terminating your account if you keep doing it regularly. That limit and OnLive's bandwidth together mean that over a 30-day period, Comcast customers can't play more than 3 hours a day without being considered "excessive."
Prices
I also found that prices are not a bargain, unless you're counting the money you save using a bargain PC – one that costs, say, what a game console costs.
First, you pay for access to OnLive itself. For now that can be free, but after a year it's slated to be $4.95 a month. That's scarcely horrible. But you can't play anything with just access; you need to also buy a GamePass for each game you want to play.
A Full GamePass, which lets you play it forever (or, presumably, as long as OnLive carries the game) is generally comparable to the price of the game itself, or more for the PC version. For example, the Borderlands Full GamePass is $29.99, and the game can be purchased for $30 or less (one site lists it for $3! (plus about $9 shipping)). F.E.A.R. 2 is $19.99 GamePass, and the purchase price is $19-$12. Assassin's Creed II was a loser, with GamePass for $39.99 and purchased game available for $24-$17. The standalone game prices are from online sources, and don't include shipping, so OnLive can net a somewhat smaller total. And you can play it on a cheap PC, right? Hmmm. Or a console.
There are also, in many cases, 5 day and 3 day passes, typically $9-$7 for 5-day and $4-$6 for 3-day. As a try before you buy, maybe those are OK, but 30 minute free demos are available, too, making a reasonably adequate try available for free.
Not all the prices are that high. There's something called AAAAAAA, which seems to consist entirely of falling from tall buildings, with a full GamePass for $9.99; and Brain Challenge is $4.99. I'll bet Brain Challenge doesn't use much bandwidth, either.
The correspondence between Full GamePass and the retail price is obviously no coincidence. I wouldn't be surprised at all to find that relationship to be wired into the deals OnLive has with game publishers. Speculation, since I just don't know: Do the 5 or 3 day pass prices correspond to normal rental rates? I'd guess yes.
Simplicity & the Mac Factor
A real plus for OnLive is simplicity. Installation is just pure dead simple, and so is starting to play. Not only do you not have to acquire the game, there's no installation and no patching; you just select the game, get a PayPass (zero time with a required pre-registered credit card), and go. Instant gratification.
Then there's the Mac factor. If you have only Apple products – no console and no Windows PC – you are simply shut out of many games unless you pursue the major hassle of BootCamp, which also requires purchasing a copy of Windows and doing the Windows maintenance. But OnLive runs on Macs, so a wide game experience is available to you immediately, without a hassle.
Conclusion
To sum up:
Positive: great video quality, great playability, hassle-free instant gratification, and the Mac factor.
Negative: Marginally competitive game prices (at best) and bandwidth, bandwidth, bandwidth. The cost can be argued, and may get better over time, but your ISP cutting you off for excessive data usage is pretty much a killer.
So where does this leave OnLive and, as a consequence, the market for GPUs? I think the bandwidth issue says that OnLive will have little impact in the near future.
However, this might change. Locally, Comcast TV ads showing off their "Xfinity" rebranding had a small notice indicating that 105 Mb data rates would be available in the future. It seems those have disappeared, so maybe it won't happen. But a 10X data rate improvement wouldn't mean much if you also didn't increase the data usage cap, and a 10X usage cap increase would completely eliminate the bandwidth issue.
Or maybe the Net Neutrality guys will pick this up and succeed. I'm not sure on that one. It seems like trying to get water from a stone if the backbone won't handle it, but who knows?
The proof, however, is in the playing and its market share, so we can just watch to see how this works out. The threat is still there, just masked by bandwidth requirements.
(And I still think virtual worlds should evaluate this technology closely. Installation difficulty is a key inhibitor to several markets there, forcing extreme measures – like shipping laptops already installed – in one documented case; see Living In It: A Tale of Learning in Second Life.)
I've tried OnLive, and it works. At least for the games I tried, it seems to work quite well, with no noticeable lag and fine video quality. But I'm not sure about the bandwidth issue yet, or the cost.
OnLive is a service that runs games on their servers up in the cloud, streaming the video to your PC or Mac. I've noted previously that this could hurt the mass market for GPUs, since it doesn't need much graphics on the client. But there were serious questions (see my post Twilight of the GPU?) as to whether they could overcome bandwidth and lag issues: Can OnLive respond to your inputs fast enough for games to be playable? And could its bandwidth requirements be met with a normal household ISP?
As I said above: Lag, check. Video, check. I found no problems there. Bandwidth, inconclusive. Cost, ditto. More data will answer those, but I've not had the chance to gather it yet. Here's what I did:
I somehow was "selected" from their wait-list as an OnLive founding member, getting me free access for a year – which doesn't mean I play totally free for a year; see below – and tried it out today, playing free 30-minute demos of Assassin's Creed II a little bit, and Borderlands enough for a good impression.
Assassin's Creed II was fine through initial cutscenes and minor initial movement. But when I reached the point where I was reborn as a player in medieval times, I ran into a showstopper. As an introduction to the controls, the game wanted me to press <squiggle_icon> to move my legs. <squiggle_icon>, unfortunately, corresponds to no key on my laptop. I tried everything plus shift, control, and alt variations, and nothing worked. In the process I accidentally created a brag clip, went back to the OnLive dashboard, and did some other obscure things I never did figure out, but never did move my legs. I moved my arms with about four different key combinations, but the game wasn't satisfied with that. So I ditched it. For all I know there's something on the OnLive web site explaining this, but I didn't look enough to find it.
I was much more successful with Borderlands, a post-apocalyptic first-person shooter. I completed the initial training mission, leveled up, and was enjoying myself when the demo time – 30 minutes, which I consider adequately generous – ran out. Targeting and firing seemed to be just as good as native games on my system. I played both in a window and in fullscreen mode, and at no time was there noticeable lag or any visual artifacts. It just played smoothly and nicely.
I wanted to try Dragon Age – I'm more of an RPG guy – but while it shows up on the web site, I couldn't find it among the games available for play on the live system.
This is not to say there weren't hassles and pains involved in getting going. Here are some details.
First, my environment: The system I used is a Sony Vaio VGN-2670N, with Intel Core Duo @ 2.66 GHz, a 1600x900 pixel display, with 4GB RAM and an Nvidia GeForce 9300M; but the Nvidia display adapter wasn't being used. For those of you wondering about speed-of-light delays, my location is just North of Denver, CO, so this was all done more than 1000 miles from the closest server farm they have (Dallas, TX). My ISP is Comcast cable, nominally providing 10 Mb/sec; I have seen it peak as high as 15 Mb/sec in spurts during downloads. My OS is 32-bit Windows Vista. (I know…)
There was a minor annoyance at the start, since their client installer refuses to even try using Google Chrome as the browser. IE, Firefox, and Safari are supported. But that only required me to use IE, which I shun, for the install; it's not used running the client.
The much bigger pain is that OnLive adamantly refuses to run over Wifi. The launcher checks, gives you one option – exit – and points you to a FAQ, which pointer gets a 404 (page not found). I did find the relevant FAQ manually on the web site. There they apologize and say it "does indeed work well with good quality Wi-Fi connections, and in the future OnLive will support wireless" but initially they're scared of bad packet-dropping low-signal-strength crud. I can understand this; they're fighting an uphill battle convincing people this works at all, and do not need a multitude complaining they don't work when the problem is crummy Wi-Fi. (Or WiFi in a coffee shop – a more serious issue; see bandwidth discussion below.)
Nevertheless, this is a pain for me. I had to go down in the basement and set up a chair where my router is, next to my water heater, to get a wired connection. When I did go down there, after convincing Vista (I know!) to actually use the wired connection, things went as described above.
That leaves one question: Bandwidth. My ISP, Comcast, has a 250 GB/month limit beyond which I am an "excessive user" and apparently get a stern talking-to, followed by account termination if I don't mend my excessive ways. Up to now, this has been far from an issue. With OnLive, it may be a significant limitation.
Unfortunately, I didn't monitor my network use carefully when using OnLive, and ran out of time to go back and do better monitoring. I'll report more when I've done that. However, checking some numbers provided by Comcast after the fact, I can see the possibility that averaging four hours a day is all the OnLive I could do and not get terminated, since my hour of use may (just may) have sucked down 2 GB. This could be a significant issue, limiting OnLive to only very casual users, but I need better measurement to be sure.
This also points to a reason for not initially allowing Wifi that they didn't mention: I doubt your local free Wifi hot spot in a Starbucks or McDonald's is really up to the task of serving several OnLive players all day.
Finally, there's cost. What I have free is access to the OnLive system; after a year that's $4.95/month (which may be a "founding member" deal). But to play other than a free demo, I need to purchase a PlayPass for each game played. I didn't do that, and still need to check that cost. Sorry, time limitations again.
So where does this leave the market for GPUs? With the information I have so far, all I can say is that the verdict is inconclusive. I think they really have the lag and display issues licked; those just aren't a problem. If I'm wrong about the bandwidth (entirely possible), and the PlayPasses don't cost too much, it could over time deal a large blow to the mass market for GPUs, which among other problems would sink the volumes that make them relatively inexpensive for HPC use.
On the other hand, if the bandwidth and cost make OnLive suitable only for very casual gaming, there may actually be a positive effect on the GPU market, since OnLive could be used as a very good "try before you buy" facility. It worked for me; I've been avoiding first-person shooters in favor of RPGs, but found the Borderlands demo to be a lot more fun than I expected.
Finally, I'll just note that Second Life recently changed direction and is saying they're going to move to a browser-based client. They, and other virtual world systems, might do well to consider instead a system using this type of technology. It would expand the range of client systems dramatically, and, even though there is a client, simplify use dramatically.
